Assess and draw inferences
Explain what evidence can support, how strongly it supports it and why it matters to the question.
Section 28-5.3.3 · 2028–2030 · 5.3.3 · Draw a supported inference
Original StudyForA scenarios and formative model answers; no Cambridge marks, predicted grades or certified mastery. Alternative reasoned answers may be valid. Full-length unseen papers, a wider mixed-problem bank and calibrated specialist teacher marking remain outstanding.
Before you begin
- Read an English passage closely
- Distinguish a statement from its supporting reason
Work on paper. Try each question before revealing help, and explain why your method works.
Quick readiness check
Before evaluating support, what should you identify?
What you will learn
- Assess the significance and scope of evidence
- Draw proportionate inferences and identify assumptions
Evidence can be credible yet irrelevant
A reliable count of total visitors may be irrelevant to whether the venue is accessible to wheelchair users. Significance depends on the decision or claim being assessed. Useful evidence must both deserve confidence and bear on the issue.
Fictional trial: 24 of 30 volunteers complete an online form without help. This supports a statement about completion among those volunteers. It does not prove universal ease of use, because recruitment, prior experience and the six unsuccessful attempts matter.
Match the inference to the strength of support
An inference goes beyond a reported observation. State its assumptions, population, period and uncertainty. Distinguish ‘some’, ‘most’ and ‘all’, and distinguish a possible outcome from a necessary one. A large association does not by itself establish cause.
To assess evidence’s significance, explain how it should change confidence or action. A limited trial may justify further testing rather than a complete rollout. Do not infer the opposite of an overstated claim merely because its supporting evidence is weak.
Sources for this lesson
Pause and explain
Does weak support for ‘everyone finds it easy’ prove everyone finds it difficult?
Worked example
Assess ‘the form is easy for everyone’ from the volunteer trial.
Show the worked solution
- 24/30=80% completed without help.
- Six did not, and the sample may not represent all users.
- A narrower trial-specific claim is justified.
Answer The trial shows 80% unaided completion among these volunteers, not ease for everyone. The result is relevant to usability but needs representative testing and investigation of failed attempts before a broad rollout claim.
Try a topic test
Choose Easy, Normal or Difficult. Save your answers and open worked review after finishing.
Test this topic →From guided practice to a new situation
Write your answer and reasoning first. Use a hint only if you are stuck. The model solution is for self-checking; your written work is not automatically marked.
Guided: Write the strongest direct descriptive claim from 24 of 30 volunteers succeeding.
Give me a hint
Keep the denominator and measured task.
Compare my reasoning
- Use the observed group of volunteers.
- Calculate 80%.
- Say completed without help, not enjoyed every feature.
Twenty-four of the thirty trial volunteers, or 80%, completed this form without help. That describes the measured outcome without generalising to all users or unmeasured satisfaction.
Look for these in your work
- Uses the observed group
- Reports the measured outcome
- Avoids expansion
Independent: A verified attendance increase is used to prove a museum’s captions are accessible. Assess significance.
Give me a hint
Does attendance measure caption access?
Compare my reasoning
- The count may be accurate.
- It does not identify caption users or their experience.
- Seek caption usability evidence from affected visitors.
Attendance can be credible evidence of visitor volume, but it does not establish caption accessibility. Evaluation needs evidence about readability, format and the experiences of visitors who rely on captions.
Look for these in your work
- Separates credibility from relevance
- Names the mismatch
- Suggests relevant evidence
Application: A study finds library users score higher than non-users. Suggest a proportionate inference and a causal limit.
Give me a hint
Consider selection and prior differences.
Compare my reasoning
- Report the association in the studied groups.
- Motivation or prior achievement may differ.
- Do not infer a library effect without stronger comparisons.
Library use is associated with higher scores in this study. The finding may motivate further investigation, but does not establish that use caused the difference: prior achievement or motivation could influence both use and scores.
Look for these in your work
- States association
- Identifies assumptions
- Limits causal inference
Common mistakes
- Replacing most with all
- Using credible but irrelevant evidence
- Concluding the opposite when support is weak
What can you explain now?
Does weak support for ‘everyone finds it easy’ prove everyone finds it difficult?
Compare with the explanation
No, neither universal claim is established
A failure of support is not proof of the reverse claim.
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Make it stick
Does weak support for ‘everyone finds it easy’ prove everyone finds it difficult?
If you needed the solution, close it and solve the problem again from a blank page. A correct answer is stronger when you can explain the reason for each step.