Population and migration
Interpret population distribution and structure, evaluate demographic change models and policy, and weigh migration impacts across places.
Section 4 · Population and migration
Exam scope and assessment notes
Cambridge International AS & A Level Geography 9696, 2027–2029 syllabus, Topic 4. Across every topic, practise reading both quantitative and qualitative geographical resources, describing patterns before explaining them, evaluating evidence and producing a structured, supported conclusion. These original explanations and self-checks are independent study support, not Cambridge questions, official marks or grades. Centre-selected named examples and detailed case studies still need course-specific evidence packs. Full timed mock papers, official marking or grade prediction, and human subject-teacher review are not provided. Fieldwork is not assessed in this syllabus, but this site does not collect or supervise primary data.
Before you begin
- Cambridge recommends prior Geography at approximately Cambridge IGCSE or Cambridge O Level. Read the source and its scale before explaining patterns; support evaluation with relevant evidence.
Work on paper. Try each question before revealing help, and explain why your method works.
Quick readiness check
What is net migration?
What you will learn
- Explain global and regional patterns of density and population growth
- Calculate and interpret natural increase, fertility, mortality and migration measures
- Read age–sex structures and critically evaluate the demographic transition model
- Assess government policy and migration causes, impacts, management and named-country evidence
Population change has rates, structures and spatial patterns
Population density is a ratio of people to area; it can hide local concentration. Natural increase is births minus deaths, while net migration is immigration minus emigration. Total fertility rate, infant mortality and life expectancy describe different aspects of population change and should not be treated as interchangeable measures.
Age–sex diagrams show population structure; dependency ratios compare groups conventionally treated as dependants with working-age groups. Youthful or ageing structures can affect services, employment and public finance. The demographic transition model helps organise change in birth and death rates, but its stages are a framework, not a universal path followed at the same speed by every country.
Policy and migration need evidence from different groups
Governments may try to manage natural increase through pronatalist or antinatalist measures. A policy's apparent result can also reflect income, education, health, culture, age structure and migration; compare time periods and groups and avoid claiming causation from a before-and-after trend alone.
Migration may be voluntary or forced and may be international or internal. Causes and impacts differ by source, migrant and destination characteristics. Consider remittances, skills, labour, public services, family separation, rights and social integration. Evaluate management using the experience of migrants as well as origin and destination places.
Sources for this lesson
Pause and explain
Why can a population pyramid help planners more than a single total population count?
Worked example
A country has a birth rate of 22 per 1000 and a death rate of 8 per 1000. Calculate natural increase per 1000 and state what must be added to estimate total population change.
Show the worked solution
- Natural increase rate = birth rate − death rate.
- 22 − 8 = 14 per 1000.
- Add net migration for a simplified total-change rate; check that the measures use compatible periods and populations.
Answer Natural increase rate = 14 per 1000. Total population change also depends on net migration.
Try a topic test
Choose Easy, Normal or Difficult. Save your answers and open worked review after finishing.
Test this topic →From guided practice to a new situation
Write your answer and reasoning first. Use a hint only if you are stuck. The model solution is for self-checking; your written work is not automatically marked.
A population of 5 million records 90,000 births, 55,000 deaths and net migration of +10,000 in one year. Find natural increase, total change and the natural increase rate per 1000.
Give me a hint
Calculate births minus deaths, add net migration, then divide natural increase by population.
Compare my reasoning
- Natural increase = 90,000 − 55,000 = 35,000.
- Total change = 35,000 + 10,000 = 45,000.
- Natural increase rate = 35,000 ÷ 5,000,000 × 1,000 = 7 per 1,000.
Natural increase is 35,000; estimated total change is +45,000; the natural increase rate is 7 per 1,000. The measures assume comparable coverage and dates.
Look for these in your work
- Births/deaths correct
- Migration added with its sign
- Rate denominator and unit correct
Two countries have similar population totals, but one pyramid has a broad base and the other has a wider older-age share. Explain one planning implication for each.
Give me a hint
Read the age structure first, then connect it to services and workforce needs.
Compare my reasoning
- A broad base indicates a relatively youthful structure and may raise immediate demand for schools and later jobs.
- A larger older-age share may increase demand for health care and pensions and change the relative workforce.
- Outcomes depend on employment, migration, productivity and public policy; a diagram alone does not give a complete forecast.
The youthful country may need more education and future employment capacity, while the ageing country may need health and pension support. These are planning signals, not certain outcomes.
Look for these in your work
- Both structures interpreted
- Needs linked to age profile
- Forecast limitation named
Evaluate a claim that restricting immigration will automatically solve pressure on housing and public services.
Give me a hint
Consider scale, migrant contributions, the causes of demand and effects on different groups.
Compare my reasoning
- Migration can add to demand in some places, but pressure also depends on housing supply, infrastructure, investment and population distribution.
- Migrants may contribute labour, taxes, skills and service provision; effects vary by age, employment, rights and local context.
- A judgement needs local evidence and compares policy alternatives, including planning, housing and service capacity.
The claim is too absolute. Effects vary by location and migrant group, while supply and planning also shape pressure. A defensible judgement uses local evidence and considers benefits, costs and alternatives.
Look for these in your work
- Claim tested rather than repeated
- Origin/destination or group differences considered
- Evidence-led judgement
Common mistakes
- Using density to imply an even distribution
- Calling natural increase total population growth
- Treating DTM stages as a fixed forecast for every country
- Attributing fertility changes to one policy without comparison evidence
- Discussing migration impacts for destinations only
What can you explain now?
If deaths exceed births, is natural increase positive or negative?
Compare with the explanation
Negative
Natural increase is the birth rate minus the death rate.
After trying it yourself, choose your next review. This is your self-assessment.
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Make it stick
Calculate natural increase and net migration separately, then explain one way population structure changes a country's needs.
If you needed the solution, close it and solve the problem again from a blank page. A correct answer is stronger when you can explain the reason for each step.