Learn in your language
Skip to content
A Level · Cambridge (CIE) · 9709

Choose an exposure using a Poisson probability target

Solve exponential probability inequalities and check neighbouring allowed durations before reporting a minimum or maximum.

Section 6.1 · The Poisson distribution

Statistics 2 · Poisson distribution · 6.1
Exam scope and assessment notes

Probability & Statistics 2 (Paper 6, A Level) · Mathematics 9709, 2026–2027, section 6.1. Paper 6 builds on Paper 5 and assumes Paper 3 calculus. Po(λ) counts non-negative integers over a stated exposure, with finite λ ≥ 0. Mean and variance are each λ; proofs are not required. The homogeneous process examples stipulate constant rate, independent counts in disjoint exposures, and negligible multiple events in sufficiently small exposures; real applications need evidence. A binomial-to-Poisson approximation uses large n and small p, with n > 50 and np < 5 approximately as the syllabus guide. A Poisson-to-normal approximation uses λ > 15 approximately, matching N(λ,λ) and applying continuity correction. These guides are not universal error guarantees. Exact and approximate calculations are labelled separately; numerical normal probabilities use unrounded z and can differ slightly from rounded-table working. Independent Poisson sums and linear combinations, sample means and hypothesis testing belong to later Statistics 2 sections. Written practice is self-checked; cumulative assessment and human subject-teacher review remain pending.

Before you begin

  • Solve logarithmic inequalities.
  • Scale a positive rate with exposure.

Work on paper. Try each question before revealing help, and explain why your method works.

Quick readiness check

At a positive fixed rate, how does P(no events) change with duration?

What you will learn

  • Solve minimum-arrival or maximum-idle duration targets.
  • Verify whole-unit thresholds without early rounding.

Decide which direction the target requires

At three per hour over t hours, P(at least one) = 1 − e⁻³ᵗ. Requiring at least 0.90 gives e⁻³ᵗ ≤ 0.10, hence t ≥ ln 10/3. The minimum continuous duration is about 0.767528 hours or 46.0517 minutes.

At two per minute, P(no events) ≥ 0.50 instead gives e⁻²ᵗ ≥ 0.50. Dividing the logarithmic inequality by minus two reverses its direction: t ≤ ln 2/2 minutes, about 20.7944 seconds. This is a maximum idle duration, since longer exposure reduces P(0).

Respect the allowed time unit

At six per hour, m minutes gives λ = m/10. An at-least-one probability of at least 0.90 requires m ≥ 10ln 10 ≈ 23.02585. If m must be whole, its minimum is 24, not the nearest rounded value 23.

At 23 minutes, 1 − e⁻²⋅³ ≈ 0.899741 fails; at 24, 1 − e⁻²⋅⁴ ≈ 0.909282 passes. Round only after solving the inequality. These probabilities are conditional on the ideal process, not empirical guarantees of an event by a deadline.

Pause and explain

If minimum whole m must satisfy m ≥ 23.02585, what is m?

Put the idea to work

Worked example

At six per hour, find the minimum whole minutes for P(at least one) ≥ 0.90.

Show the worked solution
  1. Set 1 − e⁻ᵐ⁄¹⁰ ≥ 0.90.
  2. Solve m ≥ 10ln 10 ≈ 23.02585.
  3. The minimum whole m is 24; verify 23 fails and 24 passes.

Answer 24 minutes under the model.

Try a topic test

Choose Easy, Normal or Difficult. Save your answers and open worked review after finishing.

Test this topic →

From guided practice to a new situation

Write your answer and reasoning first. Use a hint only if you are stuck. The model solution is for self-checking; your written work is not automatically marked.

1 · Guided

At three per hour, find the minimum continuous duration with P(at least one) ≥ 0.90.

Give me a hint

Use the zero-count complement and solve for hours.

Compare my reasoning
  1. e⁻³ᵗ ≤ 0.10.
  2. Taking logs and dividing by −3 gives t ≥ ln 10/3.
  3. The minimum is ≈ 0.767528 hours = 46.0517 minutes.

t ≥ ln 10/3 hours; minimum ≈ 46.0517 minutes.

Look for these in your work

  • Preserve the inequality direction.
  • State continuous duration and units.
2 · Independent

At two per minute, find the maximum continuous duration for P(0) ≥ 0.50.

Give me a hint

Longer exposure decreases P(0), so expect an upper bound.

Compare my reasoning
  1. e⁻²ᵗ ≥ 1/2 gives −2t ≥ −ln 2.
  2. Divide by −2 to get t ≤ ln 2/2 minutes.
  3. The maximum is ≈ 0.346574 minutes = 20.7944 seconds.

Maximum ≈ 20.7944 seconds.

Look for these in your work

  • Reverse order for negative division.
  • Interpret the bound as a maximum.
3 · Transfer

At six per hour, choose the minimum whole minutes for chance at least 0.90 of an event and check its preceding minute.

Give me a hint

Solve continuously before comparing adjacent permitted times.

Compare my reasoning
  1. m ≥ 10ln 10 ≈ 23.02585.
  2. At 23 minutes the probability ≈ 0.899741 < 0.90.
  3. At 24 it is ≈ 0.909282 ≥ 0.90; thus 24 is minimal.

24 minutes; 23 fails and 24 passes.

Look for these in your work

  • Respect whole-minute constraints.
  • Verify the adjacent candidate.

Common mistakes

  • Negative division reverses an inequality.
  • Idle and arrival targets give different bound directions.
  • Round thresholds according to allowed units.
Recall without your notes

What can you explain now?

Why does 23 minutes fail a minimum of 23.02585?

Compare with the explanation

It is below the required lower bound.

The preceding probability check confirms the failure.

After trying it yourself, choose your next review. This is your self-assessment.

Your review choice appears on Today. Sign in to sync it across devices.

Make it stick

Write the target, solve without early rounding, then check its direction, units and neighbouring allowed value.

If you needed the solution, close it and solve the problem again from a blank page. A correct answer is stronger when you can explain the reason for each step.

Keep learning Mathematics

Course scope and assessment

312 sequenced lessons provide 936 guided, independent and application problems covering the 160 objectives in sections 1.1–1.8, 2.1–2.6, 3.1–3.9, 4.1–4.5, 5.1–5.5 and 6.1–6.5. The map lists all 38 sections across six alternative components; all eight Pure Mathematics 1 sections and all six Pure Mathematics 2 sections, from Paper 2 Algebra through Numerical solution of equations, currently have full teaching sequences. Paper 3 Algebra, section 3.1, links the six shared foundation lessons plus six lessons on partial fractions and rational binomial expansions; Paper 3 logarithms, trigonometry and numerical equations use the shared lessons, with the Paper 1 graph foundation linked into trigonometry. Paper 3 differentiation combines the shared methods with its inverse-tangent derivative lesson. Paper 3 Integration links four shared standard and identity lessons plus seven advanced lessons, covering all six section 3.5 requirements. Eight Vectors lessons cover all six section 3.7 requirements, with 2D and 3D line and solid applications. Nine Differential equations lessons cover all four section 3.8 requirements, including Paper 3 integration techniques, initial conditions, equilibrium solutions and conditional model interpretations. Eleven Complex numbers lessons cover all eight section 3.9 requirements, with seven Argand diagrams and explicit argument and boundary checks. All nine Pure Mathematics 3 sections now have teaching linked to every mapped requirement. Nine Forces and equilibrium lessons cover all seven section 4.1 requirements, with six force diagrams, signed incline-friction intervals, reaction-dependent pull and push limits and separate-body third-law checks. Nine Kinematics lessons cover the four official section 4.2 requirements, with the graph requirement mapped to three relationships. Six motion diagrams support directed quantities, graph slopes and signed areas, Paper 1 time-calculus methods, reversal distances, constant-acceleration stages and shared-clock particle meetings. Six Momentum lessons cover both section 4.3 requirements, including signed system totals, conservation assumptions, outgoing velocities, coalescence, unknown masses and successive impacts. Four diagrams show system momentum through the stipulated events, and supplied kinetic-energy checks distinguish conservation of momentum from changes in kinetic energy. Twelve Newton’s laws lessons cover all four section 4.4 requirements, with vertical support and release stages, rough horizontal and incline motion, inferred parameters, hanging and surface pulley systems, rigid tow-bar thrust and slack-string transitions. Seven force diagrams support the separate-particle balances. Nine Energy, work and power lessons cover all five section 4.5 requirements, with angle-dependent work, kinetic and reference potential energy, signed net-work balances, smooth curved slides, rough and driven slopes, ideal connected-system energy and instantaneous power on hills. Five diagrams distinguish the energy inputs, losses and valid positive-speed force model. All five Mechanics sections now have teaching and staged practice linked to their mapped requirements. Thirteen Representation of data lessons cover all five section 5.1 requirements, including choice and limitations of displays, ordered and back-to-back stems, raw summaries and box plots, unequal-width density histograms, cumulative-frequency interpolation, descriptive moment calculations, grouped estimates, coding, combining two datasets and correcting totals. Six accessible diagrams retain repeated observations and distinguish numerical spread, frequency area and estimated readings. Ten Permutations and combinations lessons cover both official section 5.2 requirements, with selection and ordered roles, repeated objects, adjacency blocks, non-adjacency gaps, leading-zero cases, labelled multi-row seating and mixed restrictions. Six accessible diagrams show outcome trees, ordered versus unordered choices, repeated copies, blocks, gaps and distinct row seats. Eleven Probability lessons cover all four section 5.3 requirements, with equiprobable elementary outcomes, selection-based probabilities, complements and disjoint regions, independence tests, restricted sample spaces, two-way tables, replacement and removal trees, reversed conditions and unknown parameters. Seven accessible diagrams show dice outcomes, random subsets, event regions, a conditioned grid, a count table and two probability trees. Twelve Discrete random variables lessons cover all three official section 5.4 requirements, with complete probability tables, moment and parameter checks, binomial assumptions, exact probabilities and moments, geometric first-success probabilities, tails, expectation and integer reliability thresholds. Six accessible diagrams distinguish outcome grouping, weighted moments, fixed trials, discrete probability bars, waiting conventions and integer tail deadlines. Twelve Normal distribution lessons cover all three official section 5.5 requirements, with continuous-area interpretation, MF19 cumulative tables, full standardisation, tail and interval regions, conditional probabilities, percentiles, one- and two-parameter inference, binomial suitability, continuity corrections and approximate integer thresholds. Seven accessible diagrams show model areas, table reading, aligned scales, intervals, quantiles, matched binomial and normal shapes and whole integer cells. All five Statistics 1 sections now have teaching and staged practice linked to their mapped requirements. Fourteen Poisson distribution lessons cover all five official section 6.1 requirements, with homogeneous event-count assumptions, exposure scaling, exact masses and tails, conditional count events, moments, parameter inference, probability duration targets, disjoint and overlapping windows, rare-count binomial approximations, matched normal approximations and continuity corrections. Nine accessible diagrams show event exposures, unit conversions, discrete bars, complete tail complements, population moments, shared windows, approximate count models and integer cells. Exact checks distinguish approximate and exact close-target decisions. Fourteen Linear combinations lessons cover the six listed results in official section 6.2, with affine moments, signed scales and constant cases, expectation without independence, independent squared variance contributions, fixed and random fees, independent copies versus reused values, affine normal events, independent normal sums and differences, weighted and conditional areas, coefficient inference, exact independent Poisson sums and overlapping exposure limits. Nine accessible diagrams distinguish scale changes, variance contributions, component costs, copy mechanisms, aligned normal scales, summed areas, Poisson count pairs and unsupported distribution claims. Fourteen Continuous random variables lessons cover both official section 6.3 requirements, with density validity and units, support-aware intervals, complements and conditional regions, first and second moments, percentiles by direct density areas, symmetry checks, parameter inference, infinite-support power and exponential integrals, divergent-moment limits and combined applications. Nine accessible diagrams distinguish density height from probability, normalisation, negative-density failures, central and conditional areas, mean versus median, percentile locations and partial infinite tails. Explicit cumulative distribution function knowledge is not required. Eighteen Sampling and estimation lessons cover all eight official section 6.4 requirements, with population and frame definitions, random-number selection, sampling-quality limits, independent sample-mean moments, normal means, CLT conditions, SE scaling, raw, summarised and coded unbiased estimates, known-variance and large-sample mean intervals, repeated-sampling interpretation, precision planning, proportion intervals, sparse-outcome limits and contextual applications. Ten accessible diagrams distinguish selection frames, number rejection, repeated sample means, population versus mean density, CLT models, variance divisors, interval targets, illustrative coverage, integer size checks and proportion margins. Eighteen Hypothesis tests lessons cover all five official section 6.5 requirements, with pre-specified alternatives, inclusive count tails, explicit equal-tail conventions, integer critical regions and actual significance, exposure-aware Poisson tests, continuity-corrected count approximations, normal and large-sample mean tests, confidence-interval connections, error classifications, fixed-region binomial, Poisson and normal error probabilities and sample-size power comparisons. Nine accessible diagrams show the testing procedure, exact count regions, unequal Poisson tails, discrete significance jumps, corrected count boundaries, matching mean intervals and alternative error distributions. All shared lessons are counted once in the course total. All 38 sections now link teaching and practice. Eight earlier overview lessons remain available, but do not count as full section coverage. This is a content-availability measure, not full programme completion or exam readiness. Written practice is self-checked, not officially marked. Check the 2028–2030 syllabus separately if sitting an examination from 2028; this teaching map uses 2026–2027 requirements.

StudyForA · Learn with understanding

Original teaching content and links to official sources. Check your exam year and qualification before using a resource.