Changing populations
Explain population growth and structure, assess policies and migration, and compare consequences for migrants and places of origin and destination.
Exam scope and assessment notes
Cambridge IGCSE (9–1) Geography 0976, 2027–2029 syllabus, Topic 6. The syllabus does not prescribe one universal set of named detailed specific examples: centres select places suited to their learners. Sixteen optional StudyForA evidence packs now cover all sixteen example objectives, but the centre's choices are unconfirmed. Match each pack to your centre's chosen place and replace any mismatch before treating the course as complete. Original StudyForA explanations and self-check practice are not Cambridge papers, official grades or teacher-marked coursework. Map, graph and written answers are not automatically assessed. Paper 4 practice uses supplied or invented data and cannot certify safe fieldwork, equipment use or real data collection. Centre-set coursework and specialist teacher review remain pending. This is the separate 9–1 qualification. Cambridge limits this 9–1 syllabus to certain zones: in June it is available in Administrative Zone 3 and for centres in Oman and the UAE; in November it is available in Zone 3 only. Confirm the exam series and entry with your centre. Cambridge also says an entry cannot be switched from 9–1 to A*–G after the entries deadline.
Before you begin
- No previous Geography course is assumed. Use the supplied map, data or scenario; distinguish observation from explanation and support conclusions with evidence.
Work on paper. Try each question before revealing help, and explain why your method works.
Quick readiness check
What is the difference between a birth rate and a fertility rate?
What you will learn
- Interpret global growth trends and population change factors
- Evaluate pro- and anti-natalist policy and the DTM
- Explain youthful and ageing structures
- Analyse migration causes, impacts, management and named examples
Population changes through births, deaths and migration
Natural increase is the difference between birth rate and death rate; net migration is immigration minus emigration. Fertility rate, healthcare, education, conflict, employment and policy can influence growth or decline. The demographic transition model (DTM) summarises changing birth/death rates over stages, but it is a model: countries may not follow its stages in sequence or at the same pace.
Pro-natalist policies aim to raise births; anti-natalist policies aim to reduce them. Evaluate effects and unintended consequences using evidence rather than assuming a policy caused every demographic change.
Population structure affects dependency and services
A population pyramid displays age and sex structure. A youthful structure may increase demand for schools and future jobs, while an ageing structure may increase demand for healthcare and pensions and reduce the relative workforce. Migration and natural increase can change structure. A named-country example should connect growth/decline with a population policy and its impacts.
Migration has different forms and multiple effects
An economic migrant moves mainly for work or livelihood; an asylum seeker requests protection; a refugee meets a defined need for international protection. Push factors encourage leaving, while pull factors attract people; constraints and personal circumstances also matter.
Migration can affect migrants, origin communities and destinations through skills, remittances, labour, services, culture and family separation. Management may use legal pathways, border systems, integration and support. Evaluate rights, sustainability and evidence. Use a named origin–destination migration example selected for the exam course.
Pause and explain
Why can a youthful population be both an opportunity and a challenge?
Worked example
A country has a birth rate of 24 per 1000 and death rate of 9 per 1000. Find natural increase per 1000 and explain what the result omits.
Show the worked solution
- Natural increase = birth rate − death rate.
- 24 − 9 = 15 per 1000.
- The figure excludes migration and does not alone give total population change.
Answer Natural increase is 15 per 1000. Net migration must also be considered to understand overall population change.
Try a topic test
Choose Easy, Normal or Difficult. Save your answers and open worked review after finishing.
Test this topic →From guided practice to a new situation
Write your answer and reasoning first. Use a hint only if you are stuck. The model solution is for self-checking; your written work is not automatically marked.
A population is 8 million. In a year, births are 160 000 and deaths 72 000. Calculate the natural increase and crude natural increase rate per 1000.
Give me a hint
Subtract deaths from births, then divide by population and multiply by 1000.
Compare my reasoning
- Natural increase = 160000 − 72000 = 88000.
- Rate = 88000/8000000 × 1000 = 11 per 1000.
- Migration is not included in this rate.
Natural increase is 88 000 people, or 11 per 1000. Overall population change also depends on net migration.
Look for these in your work
- Count difference correct
- Rate denominator correct
- Migration limitation stated
An ageing country offers a monthly payment to families with a new child. Give one intended effect, one possible limitation and one piece of evidence to evaluate the policy.
Give me a hint
Separate the policy goal from whether other factors may influence births.
Compare my reasoning
- The payment aims to reduce the cost of raising children and may encourage births.
- It may have limited effect if housing, childcare or employment conditions remain difficult.
- Compare fertility/birth trends and eligible families with a suitable baseline, while noting other changes.
The policy may encourage births by reducing costs, but its effect depends on wider conditions. Evaluation needs trend and comparison evidence and should not attribute every change to the payment alone.
Look for these in your work
- Intended effect stated
- Limitation connected to context
- Evidence and causality qualified
A named migration moves workers from Country A to Country B. Build a three-part impact comparison for migrants, origin and destination, and name evidence needed before judging whether it benefits both countries.
Give me a hint
Track effects at each scale and include both gains and costs.
Compare my reasoning
- Migrants may gain wages or safety but face family separation or insecure work.
- Origin may receive remittances and lose workers in key sectors.
- Destination may fill jobs while facing service or integration pressures; use wage, employment, remittance and service data.
A balanced answer considers migrants, origin and destination and both benefits and costs. A judgement needs named-case evidence about jobs, remittances, services, rights and how impacts are distributed.
Look for these in your work
- All three groups covered
- Mixed effects included
- Evidence needed identified
Common mistakes
- Using natural increase as total population growth
- Assuming every country follows the DTM in the same way
- Calling every migrant a refugee
- Ignoring impacts on origin and destination when evaluating migration
What can you explain now?
A country has more people immigrating than emigrating. What is the sign of net migration?
Compare with the explanation
Positive
Net migration is immigration minus emigration.
After trying it yourself, choose your next review. This is your self-assessment.
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Make it stick
How do natural increase and net migration combine, and which groups should a migration evaluation consider?
If you needed the solution, close it and solve the problem again from a blank page. A correct answer is stronger when you can explain the reason for each step.