Ethiopia: rainfall, food insecurity and irrigation
A dated example of how seasonal rainfall, pastoral conditions and prices affect food supply in Ethiopia, alongside a government-reported wheat-irrigation strategy. Confirm that your centre selected Ethiopia.
Section CASE-EXAMPLES · Centre-selected detailed specific examples
Exam scope and assessment notes
Cambridge IGCSE Geography 0460, 2027–2029 syllabus, Topic 10.3.6. The syllabus does not prescribe one universal set of named detailed specific examples: centres select places suited to their learners. Sixteen optional StudyForA evidence packs now cover all sixteen example objectives, but the centre's choices are unconfirmed. Match each pack to your centre's chosen place and replace any mismatch before treating the course as complete. Original StudyForA explanations and self-check practice are not Cambridge papers, official grades or teacher-marked coursework. Map, graph and written answers are not automatically assessed. Paper 4 practice uses supplied or invented data and cannot certify safe fieldwork, equipment use or real data collection. Centre-set coursework and specialist teacher review remain pending.
Before you begin
- No previous Geography course is assumed. Use the supplied map, data or scenario; distinguish observation from explanation and support conclusions with evidence.
Work on paper. Try each question before revealing help, and explain why your method works.
Quick readiness check
What is one natural factor that can reduce Ethiopia's cereal supply?
What you will learn
- Explain how crop seasons, rainfall and pastoral systems affect food supply
- Distinguish food availability from household access and food security
- Use dated evidence about harvests, prices and pastoral livelihoods
- Evaluate irrigation and wheat production as a food-supply strategy
Food supply varies between crop and pastoral regions
Ethiopia has contrasting highland crop zones and pastoral areas where households depend more on livestock. The main Meher cereal harvest is planted during the June–September Kiremt rains, while the smaller Belg season depends on February–May rainfall. Weather, altitude, soils, access to water, seed, roads and markets affect the type, amount and timing of food available.
FAO's October 2025 country brief reported that below-average June rain delayed Meher planting, while improved rain from July to mid-September supported generally favourable cereal prospects in key western crop areas. The Belg harvest had performed poorly after rainfall deficits. The same brief described weak pasture and livestock conditions in some pastoral areas. National prospects therefore concealed important regional differences.
Food insecurity has natural and economic causes
A poor or delayed harvest can reduce local availability. In pastoral areas, low rainfall limits pasture and water, weakening livestock, milk supply and household income. Food can also be unaffordable even when markets have stocks: FAO reported locally produced maize prices in monitored markets were 5–20% higher year on year in August 2025, alongside currency depreciation and higher fuel and transport costs.
Food insecurity can cause hunger, poorer nutrition, distress sales of livestock and reduced ability to pay for health care or schooling. FAO warned that some pastoral areas could face a worse food-security situation in late 2025 and early 2026 if forecast rainfall remained below average. That was a forecast in a dated brief, not a verified outcome for all Ethiopia.
Irrigation can reduce rain dependence, but requires careful management
Ethiopia's Ministry of Agriculture describes wheat as a priority commodity and reports expansion of dry-season irrigated wheat from 20,000 hectares in 2020 to 3.5 million hectares in 2025. The Ministry reported 128 million quintals of dry-season production in 2025, compared with 600,000 quintals in 2020. These are government-reported figures, not an independent evaluation of household nutrition or environmental costs.
Irrigation can add a second growing season, stabilise output and reduce reliance on rainfall or imports. It needs sustainable water allocation, functioning canals and pumps, suitable seeds, farm advice, storage, roads and affordable inputs. Expanding output does not automatically make food affordable or reach households in drought- or conflict-affected places; measure price, nutrition, regional coverage and water effects as well as production.
Sources for this lesson
Pause and explain
Why did FAO describe both favourable Meher prospects and a difficult food-security situation in some pastoral areas?
Worked example
FAO reported monitored maize prices in August 2025 were 5–20% above the previous year. If a market's price had been 100 birr/kg one year earlier, calculate the possible August 2025 range and explain why this does not prove all households faced the same cost.
Show the worked solution
- A 5% rise gives 105; a 20% rise gives 120.
- Treat the result as a range, not one national price.
- Market, location, household income and access to other foods differ.
Answer The implied range is 105–120 birr/kg. It is only an illustration using the reported percentage change: FAO monitored specific markets, and prices, incomes and food choices vary among regions and households.
Look for these in your work
- Both percentage endpoints calculated
- Range shown
- Geographic and household variation recognised
Try a topic test
Choose Easy, Normal or Difficult. Save your answers and open worked review after finishing.
Test this topic →From guided practice to a new situation
Write your answer and reasoning first. Use a hint only if you are stuck. The model solution is for self-checking; your written work is not automatically marked.
Explain how rainfall affected both Ethiopia's Meher and Belg harvest prospects in FAO's October 2025 brief.
Give me a hint
Keep the seasons and locations distinct; report the dates in the source.
Compare my reasoning
- Below-average June rain delayed planting in the 2025 Meher season.
- Average or above-average rain from July to mid-September improved vegetation in many main crop areas.
- The Belg harvest was poor after February–May rainfall deficits.
The 2025 Meher planting was delayed by low June rainfall, but later improved rains supported generally favourable prospects in major western crop areas. By contrast, the secondary Belg harvest performed poorly after February–May rainfall deficits. Seasonal and regional conditions differed.
Look for these in your work
- Meher and Belg distinguished
- Rainfall mechanisms explained
- Forecast language preserved
Explain one way drought can affect pastoral households and one way high prices can worsen food insecurity.
Give me a hint
Trace the physical effect through livestock and income, then consider household purchasing power.
Compare my reasoning
- Low rainfall reduces pasture and water; weak livestock can reduce milk, sales and income.
- High staple prices reduce how much food a household can buy with a fixed income.
- FAO reported maize prices in monitored markets were 5–20% above a year earlier in August 2025.
Drought can reduce pasture and water, weakening livestock and lowering milk or sale income. At the same time, higher staple prices reduce purchasing power. FAO reported monitored maize prices 5–20% higher year on year in August 2025, though the change varied by market.
Look for these in your work
- Physical pathway explained
- Access/affordability explained
- Dated price evidence used carefully
Evaluate whether irrigated wheat expansion alone can solve Ethiopia's food insecurity.
Give me a hint
Consider production and imports, then access, prices, regional differences and water sustainability.
Compare my reasoning
- The Ministry reported dry-season irrigated wheat area rising from 20,000 hectares in 2020 to 3.5 million in 2025.
- Irrigation can add production and reduce dependence on seasonal rain, but output does not guarantee affordability or delivery to every region.
- Water allocation, maintenance, storage, roads, conflict risks, nutrition and household incomes also affect food security.
Irrigated wheat expansion can increase domestic supply and provide a second growing season; the Ministry reported a major increase in area by 2025. It cannot solve food insecurity alone because access depends on prices, incomes, storage and transport, while pastoral households may face separate pasture and water shocks. Sustainable water management and local nutrition and price data are needed to judge the strategy.
Look for these in your work
- Strategy benefit supported by dated evidence
- Availability distinguished from access
- Environmental and regional limits included
Common mistakes
- Treating a favourable national crop outlook as proof that every region is food secure
- Confusing food production with household access and affordability
- Presenting an FAO forecast as a verified later outcome
- Calling a government-reported production figure independently audited
- Assuming irrigation has no water or ecosystem trade-offs
- Using one market's maize price as a national household cost
- Using this optional pack without confirming the centre's selected country or area
What can you explain now?
Can a household be food insecure when food is available in a market but prices are unaffordable?
Compare with the explanation
Yes; access and affordability are part of food security
Food security depends on availability, access and stable use over time.
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Make it stick
Name one crop season, one rainfall effect, one food-access problem, one pastoral impact and one benefit and limit of irrigation in Ethiopia.
If you needed the solution, close it and solve the problem again from a blank page. A correct answer is stronger when you can explain the reason for each step.