Explain why a sampling method may be unsatisfactory
Identify selection, timing and non-response problems and distinguish bias from random variation.
Exam scope and assessment notes
Probability & Statistics 2 (Paper 6, A Level) · Mathematics 9709, 2026–2027, section 6.4. Paper 6 builds on Paper 5 and assumes Paper 3 calculus. Distinguish population parameters, sample statistics and repeated-sample random variables. Random selection needs a relevant frame and does not automatically remove undercoverage or non-response. Particular named sampling methods are not required. Sample-mean formulae here assume independent observations from one population with finite variance: E(X̄) = μ, Var(X̄) = σ²/n and SE = σ/√n. A mean of independent normal observations is normal; the CLT gives an approximate normal mean for an adequate large independent sample, not normal individual data. No universal sample-size cutoff guarantees that approximation. Unbiased sample variance uses n − 1, with n > 1. Mean intervals use the normal model with known variance or a large-sample approximation; a small sample with unknown variance does not justify the z method taught here. Proportion intervals use the large-sample normal approximation with adequate success and failure counts; extreme or sparse counts may invalidate it. Quoted two-sided critical values are 1.645 for 90%, 1.960 for 95% and 2.576 for 99%; retain other working unrounded. Confidence describes repeated-sampling coverage, not posterior probability for a fixed realised interval, individual observations or a guarantee. A narrower interval does not repair a biased sample. Hypothesis testing belongs to section 6.5. Written practice is self-checked; cumulative assessment and human subject-teacher review remain pending.
Before you begin
- Distinguish population and frame.
- Describe the process that produces the data.
Work on paper. Try each question before revealing help, and explain why your method works.
Quick readiness check
What should an explanation of sampling weakness identify?
What you will learn
- Connect a sampling weakness to the target population.
- Explain why a bigger sample need not remove bias.
Connect the mechanism to possible missing answers
Asking only the first students who arrive at the school gate may over-represent short journeys or early schedules. Asking only in one lesson excludes absent students and other classes. Explain which groups are missing and how that could relate to the variable.
If randomly selected people do not respond, the completed sample may differ from the selected sample. Travel time, internet access or interest in the topic can influence response; randomness of invitation does not guarantee randomness of response.
More biased data can be more precisely wrong
A large convenience sample may give a small standard error under an inappropriate independent-sampling model while remaining systematically unrepresentative. The formula does not measure selection bias or repair an incomplete frame.
An improved design uses a relevant complete frame, random selection and a clear plan for measurement and response. Describe these practical features; memorising labels such as quota or stratified sampling is not required here.
Pause and explain
Why can a large voluntary survey remain biased?
Worked example
Why might a first-arrivals survey be weak for school-wide travel times?
Show the worked solution
- It selects by arrival time rather than random choice.
- Arrival time may be connected with journey length or schedule.
- The completed group may not represent all enrolled students.
Answer Selection by arrival can bias the travel-time sample.
Try a topic test
Choose Easy, Normal or Difficult. Save your answers and open worked review after finishing.
Test this topic →From guided practice to a new situation
Write your answer and reasoning first. Use a hint only if you are stuck. The model solution is for self-checking; your written work is not automatically marked.
Explain a weakness in selecting only the first fifty students to arrive.
Give me a hint
Link arrival-based selection to the travel-time question.
Compare my reasoning
- Selection depends on arrival time.
- Journey length or schedule may affect arrival.
- The target population includes students who arrive later.
Arrival-based selection may miss systematically different journeys.
Look for these in your work
- Explain the selection rule.
- Connect it to missing outcomes.
Random invitations receive responses from only internet-active students. Identify a remaining problem.
Give me a hint
Completed responses can differ from the invited sample.
Compare my reasoning
- Invitation was random but response was selective.
- Internet activity may relate to the measured behaviour.
- Non-response can therefore create bias.
Selective non-response may bias the completed sample.
Look for these in your work
- Separate invitation and response.
- Avoid claiming guaranteed direction without evidence.
Would ten thousand convenient responses necessarily be better than a smaller relevant random sample?
Give me a hint
Consider the inferential target as well as sample size.
Compare my reasoning
- Convenience selection can remain systematically unrepresentative.
- A large count may reduce random variation without removing bias.
- Compare design quality and assumptions before applying an interval.
Not necessarily; design and possible bias matter alongside size.
Look for these in your work
- Distinguish bias from variability.
- Avoid a size-only judgement.
Common mistakes
- Name a mechanism, not just the word bias.
- Do not assume invitations and responses have identical selection properties.
- Size alone does not fix systematic errors.
What can you explain now?
Does increasing a biased sample always remove its bias?
Compare with the explanation
No.
The selection mechanism may remain unchanged.
After trying it yourself, choose your next review. This is your self-assessment.
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Make it stick
Explain who is selected, who is missing and why that matters for the question.
If you needed the solution, close it and solve the problem again from a blank page. A correct answer is stronger when you can explain the reason for each step.